2013 Indo-Pak Standoff in the Purview of Indian Strategic Thinking / Regional Designs and Response Options for Pakistan

2013 INDO-PAK STANDOFF IN THE PURVIEW OF INDIAN STRATEGIC THINKING / REGIONAL DESIGNS AND RESPONSE OPTIONS FOR PAKISTAN

By Xeric

1.     General.    India has been aspiring for a global status since its inception. Establishing regional hegemony is hence the first logical step towards this end. The desire is primarily fuelled by a steady growth rate, worthwhile military might and a strong industrial base. Except China, other countries in the region had succumbed to the Indian influence in one way or the other; Pakistan however belongs to a different league. It has resisted all kind of initiatives by India to subdue it in the past and continue to do so. Hence, Pakistan had obviously become India’s centre of attention and is compelled to confront the Indian power projection beyond its borders. The recent tension along the LoC is the latest episode in the series of events. As these incidents are not isolated and have a definite connection with the Indian hegemonic designs, there is a need to study the same so that a coordinated response can be generated.

2.   Aim.    To analyse the current Indo-Pak standoff in the purview of Indian global aspirations and its implications for Pakistan with a view to suggest suitable response options for Pakistan.

3.      Scope.    The paper shall focus on the following:-

a.      Analysing the motives behind Indian strategic thinking and its implications for Pakistan.

           b.       Response options for Pakistan.

Reasons Behind Indian Strategic Thinking

4.         The Indian hegemonic designs in the region are linked with her ambitions to become a global player. These designs could take any shape from subduing its smaller neighbours through economic strangulation to expansion of its military might beyond that required for protecting India from internal/external threats. This intimidating attitude emanates from a specific kind of Indian thinking that prevails among their elite and has been further discussed in the succeeding paras:-

a.     Comprehensive National Power (CNP).  India’s CNP is on a rise and ranks among the top ten countries. Out of the six countries that borders India, five are smaller in size, economy and military strength than India. This coupled with the fact that India has border disputes with China and Pakistan, allows India to exert its influence beyond its borders. Also, the Indian ability to invest in its military might due to its soaring economy have enabled her to farther its hegemonic designs. It is hence out of compulsion that India by virtue of her immense CNP undertakes force/power projection in the region.

b.       Counter Weight Against China.  India has been selected by the West as a counter weight to China. Hence, India is encouraged by the West to project its power potential in the region.

c.       Pak-China Energy Corridor. China is constructing an energy from Gwadar to its Xinjiang through the Karakorams. In order to safeguard the same, China is likely to continue with its show of force in Leh region, hence giving India an excuse to flex its military muscles.

d.      The 'Muslim Bomb' Factor.   The fact that Pakistan is a nuclear power is not taken well by the West. In the garb of our relevance in WoT, the possibility of a western intervention to take over our nuclear weapons has gone remote. However, India comes up as an alternative option to do the dirty work for the West.

e.      Discrediting Pakistan. The Indian ‘Akhund Bharat’ notion has taken a back seat since Pakistan became a nuclear power. Moreover, the outcome of four wars with Pakistan has made it clear to India that Pakistan cannot be turned into an Indian annexe. However, India will not refrain from maligning and discrediting Pakistan in the international community. The stigma of so called cross border terrorism and harbouring ‘terrorists’ who are fond of infiltration into India through the LoC is an exceptional excuse with India to achieve this aim. Hence, incident at the LoC are continue to happen.

5.         Recommendations/Response Options for Pakistan

a.    Pakistan should put its immense human resource to use, primarily by reducing the number of its non-productive cadre. This can be done by improving upon its education sector and expanding the industrial base. By creating congenial environment which will allow Foreign Direct Investment, we can enhance our CNP which in turn will fuel our growth both in economic and military terms.

b.       Pakistan  should  assist China  in  enhancing its  global  outreach. This can be done by allowing China to add Gwadar to its ‘Strand of Pearls’. The suggestion of turning Gwadar into a free port on the lines of Hong Kong by the current government is a correct step which will help us achieving this aim. Moreover, by following this approach we would not be required to bank only upon China as a free port will allow us to act as a global pier for sea trade.

c.     We should provide China will all the assistance in terms of securing and protecting the energy corridor through the Karakorams. Raising of a special force for the protection of the corridor, as suggested by the current government will facilitate the same. Moreover, constituting an independent and efficient authority/body to specifically look after the transit through the corridor should also be looked into so that the trade through the corridor is not hindered due to bureaucratic hurdles.

d.     Perceptions weigh more than reality. Whereas the western powers seem convinced that we have an efficient mechanism in place to ensure security of our strategic assets and prevent them from falling into wrong hands, but the same needs to be projected for the consumption of western public too. Revealing limited details regarding the safeguards we employ for the protection of our nukes can be the first step in this regards. Use of social media in conjunction with electronic media to fight back the misperceptions regarding the safety of our nukes will also pay rich dividends.

e.       Pakistan should endeavour to remain relevant to the global equation. After the pull out of the US troops from Afghanistan, Pakistan is likely to lose its relevance and hence the limited support it gets from the west both in economic and diplomatic terms. The focus will thus shift from terrorism in Afghanistan to ‘terrorism’ in Kashmir and across the LoC. Hence we must remain prepared to respond to any action by India to malign us by orchestrating infiltration attempts at the LoC through a superior external and diplomatic manoeuvre. Since an open confrontation with India is not in our national interest, we need to focus on gathering support from the international community when it comes to resolution of the Kashmir issue especially regarding the status of the freedom fighters who are portrayed as terrorists by India. Moreover, any further blame game by India whereby it accuses Pakistan for stirring up tension on the LoC must be dealt with promptly by arriving at a consensus between the civilian government and the military hierarchy. Piecemeal and conflicting responses where our military, government and media took divergent views of the situation at the LoC needs to be curbed. Making use of the platform of National Security Council in a pragmatic manner can help us in mounting a unified response to India.

5.         Conclusion. With the possibility of India becoming a regional and then a global power well in sight, we are likely to continue to face a hegemonic India in the future too. Even though India will not be able to subdue us militarily, but its efforts to discredit and malign us among the international community will surely gain momentum. Unless our leaders, civil society, military and media develop a national census on how we are to react to the Indian designs, we are likely to be left behind in the region and thus lose our relevance. Hence, we must develop the capability of presenting a unified response to any aggression, be it military or diplomatic, if we want to survive a dominating India. This is only possible if all pillars of the states, military and media inclusive are taken on board.